Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa: model vs market
| Source | Pacific FC | Draw | Atlético Ottawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Pacific FC / Atlético Ottawa)
- 0.95 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Pacific FC / Atlético Ottawa)
- 1.39 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pacific FC goals. Columns: Atlético Ottawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pacific FC | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Atlético Ottawa | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pacific FC or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlético Ottawa) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlético Ottawa win by 2+ | 22% | 4.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa recent form
Pacific FC
1W 3D 2L
Atlético Ottawa
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pacific FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-8
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 2 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlético Ottawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 51% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pacific FC at home only, Atlético Ottawa away only.
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Pacific FC 1 · draws 3 · Atlético Ottawa 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Atlético Ottawa | 0-0 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-07-26 | Atlético Ottawa | 3-2 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-30 | Pacific FC | 2-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-06 | Atlético Ottawa | 2-0 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-27 | Pacific FC | 0-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-06-07 | Pacific FC | 0-1 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-05-03 | Atlético Ottawa | 3-1 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-09-22 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-1 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-08-17 | Pacific FC | 0-3 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-07-07 | Atlético Ottawa | 0-1 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- York United v Supra du Quebec — match page 2026-10-07
- Forge vs Pacific FC 2026-10-07
- Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Forge v York United — match page 2026-10-12
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12