Forge vs Pacific FC preview
Forge faces Pacific FC with a strong probability of winning at 73%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.54 for Forge and 1.04 for Pacific FC. The market indicates a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 60%.
However, Forge's recent form shows three draws in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Pacific FC has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last six games. This uncertainty in form contributes to a confidence grade of C, suggesting that while Forge is favored, the outcome is not guaranteed.
Forge vs Pacific FC: model vs market
| Source | Forge | Draw | Pacific FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Published | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.04.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Forge vs Pacific FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Forge, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forge | 1.21 | 1.21 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.65 | 5.65 | +0.00 |
| Pacific FC | 9.73 | 9.73 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Forge and Pacific FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Forge / Pacific FC)
- 1.05 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Forge / Pacific FC)
- 0.82 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Forge vs Pacific FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Forge goals. Columns: Pacific FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Forge vs Pacific FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Forge vs Pacific FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 73% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.04 | |
| Pacific FC | 10% | 9.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Forge or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Pacific FC) | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Forge and Pacific FC recent form
Forge
1W 4D 1L
Pacific FC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Forge at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 12
- They have won 14 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pacific FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-6
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 2 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Forge at home only, Pacific FC away only.
Forge vs Pacific FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Forge 8 · draws 1 · Pacific FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Forge | 2-0 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-04-26 | Pacific FC | 0-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-27 | Forge | 4-0 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-18 | Forge | 2-0 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-05-24 | Pacific FC | 0-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-04-12 | Pacific FC | 0-2 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-10-19 | Pacific FC | 1-0 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-08-30 | Forge | 2-0 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-07-14 | Forge | 2-1 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-05-11 | Pacific FC | 0-0 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- York United v Cavalry FC — match page 2026-10-03
- Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC 2026-10-04
- York United v Supra du Quebec — match page 2026-10-07
- Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa 2026-10-11
- Forge v York United — match page 2026-10-12
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12