York United vs Supra du Quebec preview
York United faces Supra du Quebec with a 39% chance of an away win compared to York's 37% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the high expected goals of 2.63 for York and 2.04 for Supra. The market indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 84% and both teams to score at 81%.
However, recent form shows York United with mixed results: W-L-D-L-W-D, while Supra du Quebec has a slightly better recent record: W-L-W-L-L-W. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making it possible for either team to secure a win despite the probabilities.
York United vs Supra du Quebec: model vs market
| Source | York United | Draw | Supra du Quebec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 19% | 30% |
| Market | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Published | 37% | 23% | 39% |
| Edge | +18% | -5% | -12% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
York United vs Supra du Quebec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Supra du Quebec, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 2.75 | 2.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.67 | 3.67 | +0.00 |
| Supra du Quebec | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
York United and Supra du Quebec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.67
- Attack rating (York United / Supra du Quebec)
- 1.27 / 1.06
- Defence rating (York United / Supra du Quebec)
- 1.45 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
York United vs Supra du Quebec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: York United goals. Columns: Supra du Quebec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
York United vs Supra du Quebec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for York United vs Supra du Quebec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York United | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Supra du Quebec | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 16% | 6.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.23 |
| No | 19% | 5.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (York United or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Supra du Quebec) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Supra du Quebec win by 2+ | 16% | 6.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
York United and Supra du Quebec recent form
York United
2W 2D 2L
Supra du Quebec
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
York United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Supra du Quebec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: York United at home only, Supra du Quebec away only.
York United vs Supra du Quebec head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: York United 0 · draws 1 · Supra du Quebec 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | York United | 1-1 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-29 | Supra du Quebec | 3-1 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- York United v Cavalry FC — match page 2026-10-03
- Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC 2026-10-04
- Forge vs Pacific FC 2026-10-07
- Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa 2026-10-11
- Forge v York United — match page 2026-10-12
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12