Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda preview
In the China Super League fixture between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda, the 1X2 probabilities show Henan Jianye at 36%, Tianjin Teda at 35%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 52%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 46%.
Henan Jianye's recent form is D-D-D-D-D-L, while Tianjin Teda has a better run with W-W-D-D-L-L. The expected goals are close, with Henan Jianye at 1.25 and Tianjin Teda at 1.24. A draw or a high-scoring match could challenge the predictions, given the close probabilities and recent performances.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda: model vs market
| Source | Henan Jianye | Draw | Tianjin Teda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 30% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Henan Jianye / Tianjin Teda)
- 0.95 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Henan Jianye / Tianjin Teda)
- 0.98 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Henan Jianye goals. Columns: Tianjin Teda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Henan Jianye | 36% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Tianjin Teda | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Henan Jianye or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Tianjin Teda) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Henan Jianye win by 2+ | 16% | 6.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda recent form
Henan Jianye
0W 5D 1L
Tianjin Teda
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Henan Jianye at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tianjin Teda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Henan Jianye at home only, Tianjin Teda away only.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Henan Jianye 1 · draws 0 · Tianjin Teda 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Tianjin Teda | 1-2 | Henan Jianye | China Super League |
| 2025-09-28 | Tianjin Teda | 1-0 | Henan Jianye | China Super League |
| 2025-05-05 | Henan Jianye | 3-4 | Tianjin Teda | China Super League |
Before and after this match
- Henan Jianye, previous: Sichuan Jiuniu v Henan Jianye analysis
- Tianjin Teda, previous: Chengdu Better City – Tianjin Teda, 2026-10-10