Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye preview
Sichuan Jiuniu hosts Henan Jianye with a 40% chance for an away win according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 50% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood for both teams to score.
Sichuan Jiuniu's expected goals stand at 1.40 while Henan Jianye has 1.26. Recent form shows Sichuan Jiuniu with two wins in their last five matches, while Henan Jianye has drawn four of their last six. The head-to-head record favors Henan Jianye, who have three wins in the last seven encounters. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye: model vs market
| Source | Sichuan Jiuniu | Draw | Henan Jianye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Published | 34% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +7% | +2% | -9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Henan Jianye, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sichuan Jiuniu | 2.91 | 2.90 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.50 | -0.05 |
| Henan Jianye | 2.21 | 2.20 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Sichuan Jiuniu / Henan Jianye)
- 0.84 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Sichuan Jiuniu / Henan Jianye)
- 1.01 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sichuan Jiuniu goals. Columns: Henan Jianye goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 34% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Henan Jianye | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sichuan Jiuniu or draw) | 60% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Henan Jianye) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Henan Jianye win by 2+ | 15% | 6.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye recent form
Sichuan Jiuniu
2W 2D 2L
Henan Jianye
0W 5D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sichuan Jiuniu at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-5
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Henan Jianye away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sichuan Jiuniu at home only, Henan Jianye away only.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Sichuan Jiuniu 1 · draws 3 · Henan Jianye 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Henan Jianye | 1-0 | Sichuan Jiuniu | China Super League |
| 2025-08-08 | Henan Jianye | 4-1 | Sichuan Jiuniu | China Super League |
| 2025-04-05 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 1-3 | Henan Jianye | China Super League |
| 2024-07-13 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 0-0 | Henan Jianye | Super League |
| 2024-04-05 | Henan Jianye | 0-2 | Sichuan Jiuniu | Super League |
| 2021-10-28 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 0-0 | Henan Jianye | FA Cup |
| 2021-10-23 | Henan Jianye | 1-1 | Sichuan Jiuniu | FA Cup |
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