Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing: model vs market
| Source | Qingdao Youth Island | Draw | Dalian Zhixing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Edge | +13% | +1% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.87.
- The market prices Qingdao Youth Island below the model: +12.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.66, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Qingdao Youth Island, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Youth Island | 2.58 | 2.58 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.27 | +0.00 |
| Dalian Zhixing | 2.60 | 2.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Qingdao Youth Island / Dalian Zhixing)
- 0.91 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Qingdao Youth Island / Dalian Zhixing)
- 0.69 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Qingdao Youth Island goals. Columns: Dalian Zhixing goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qingdao Youth Island | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Dalian Zhixing | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Qingdao Youth Island or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Dalian Zhixing) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Qingdao Youth Island win by 2+ | 25% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing recent form
Qingdao Youth Island
2W 4D 0L
Dalian Zhixing
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Qingdao Youth Island at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-8-0
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dalian Zhixing away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-7
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Qingdao Youth Island at home only, Dalian Zhixing away only.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Qingdao Youth Island 3 · draws 0 · Dalian Zhixing 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Dalian Zhixing | 2-3 | Qingdao Youth Island | China Super League |
| 2025-10-04 | Dalian Zhixing | 0-2 | Qingdao Youth Island | China Super League |
| 2025-04-20 | Qingdao Youth Island | 2-0 | Dalian Zhixing | China Super League |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan 2026-10-09
- Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG 2026-10-09
- Shanghai Shenhua v Yunnan Yukun — match page 2026-10-10
- Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng 2026-10-11