Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng: model vs market
| Source | Chongqing Tongliang Long | Draw | Shandong Luneng |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Edge | -8% | +2% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Shandong Luneng below the model: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shandong Luneng, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 2.59 | 2.59 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.46 | +0.00 |
| Shandong Luneng | 2.50 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Chongqing Tongliang Long / Shandong Luneng)
- 0.61 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Chongqing Tongliang Long / Shandong Luneng)
- 0.97 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chongqing Tongliang Long goals. Columns: Shandong Luneng goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 34% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Shandong Luneng | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Shandong Luneng) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shandong Luneng win by 2+ | 22% | 4.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng recent form
Chongqing Tongliang Long
0W 2D 4L
Shandong Luneng
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chongqing Tongliang Long at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shandong Luneng away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-7
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Chongqing Tongliang Long at home only, Shandong Luneng away only.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0 · draws 0 · Shandong Luneng 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Shandong Luneng | 3-1 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | China Super League |
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