Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan preview
In the China Super League fixture between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan, the key number is the 66% probability for Beijing Guoan to win in the 1X2 market. Qingdao Jonoon's recent form shows six consecutive losses, which could impact their performance against a team that has won two of its last three matches.
The expected goals suggest a significant difference, with Qingdao Jonoon at 0.98 and Beijing Guoan at 2.51. While there is a 68% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score, Qingdao Jonoon's struggles could lead to a lower scoreline than anticipated.
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan: model vs market
| Source | Qingdao Jonoon | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Market | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Published | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| Edge | -3% | -2% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Beijing Guoan below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Beijing Guoan, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Jonoon | 5.27 | 6.00 | +0.73 |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.70 | +0.10 |
| Beijing Guoan | 1.52 | 1.43 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Qingdao Jonoon / Beijing Guoan)
- 0.72 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Qingdao Jonoon / Beijing Guoan)
- 1.48 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Qingdao Jonoon goals. Columns: Beijing Guoan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qingdao Jonoon | 15% | 6.86 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Beijing Guoan | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Qingdao Jonoon or draw) | 34% | 2.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Beijing Guoan) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win by 2+ | 49% | 2.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan recent form
Qingdao Jonoon
0W 0D 6L
Beijing Guoan
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Qingdao Jonoon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-5
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beijing Guoan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-2
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Qingdao Jonoon at home only, Beijing Guoan away only.
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Qingdao Jonoon 2 · draws 2 · Beijing Guoan 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Beijing Guoan | 4-2 | Qingdao Jonoon | China Super League |
| 2025-10-26 | Beijing Guoan | 2-4 | Qingdao Jonoon | China Super League |
| 2025-05-17 | Qingdao Jonoon | 1-1 | Beijing Guoan | China Super League |
| 2024-10-19 | Beijing Guoan | 6-0 | Qingdao Jonoon | Super League |
| 2024-05-21 | Qingdao Jonoon | 1-1 | Beijing Guoan | Super League |
| 2023-07-22 | Beijing Guoan | 2-0 | Qingdao Jonoon | Super League |
| 2023-04-25 | Qingdao Jonoon | 3-1 | Beijing Guoan | Super League |
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