Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun preview
In the China Super League fixture between Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun, the model gives a 58% probability of a Shanghai Shenhua win. The expected goals suggest a high-scoring match, with Shanghai Shenhua at 2.89 and Yunnan Yukun at 2.26. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 89%, and both teams to score stands at 85%.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Recent form shows Shanghai Shenhua winning three of their last six matches, while Yunnan Yukun has won four of their last six. The head-to-head record is balanced, with each team having one win and one draw in their last three encounters. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun: model vs market
| Source | Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 18% | 30% |
| Market | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| Published | 58% | 19% | 23% |
| Edge | -8% | -1% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 2.26.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shanghai Shenhua, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Shenhua | 1.54 | 1.54 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 4.75 | -0.15 |
| Yunnan Yukun | 4.52 | 4.50 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.15
- Attack rating (Shanghai Shenhua / Yunnan Yukun)
- 1.24 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Shanghai Shenhua / Yunnan Yukun)
- 1.22 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shanghai Shenhua goals. Columns: Yunnan Yukun goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 85%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.22 | |
| Yunnan Yukun | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89% | 1.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 11% | 8.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 85% | 1.18 |
| No | 15% | 6.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shanghai Shenhua or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Yunnan Yukun) | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shanghai Shenhua win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun recent form
Shanghai Shenhua
4W 0D 2L
Yunnan Yukun
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shanghai Shenhua at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-5
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 2.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yunnan Yukun away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-7
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 2.46
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shanghai Shenhua at home only, Yunnan Yukun away only.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 1 · draws 1 · Yunnan Yukun 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Yunnan Yukun | 1-0 | Shanghai Shenhua | China Super League |
| 2025-08-02 | Yunnan Yukun | 4-4 | Shanghai Shenhua | China Super League |
| 2025-04-02 | Shanghai Shenhua | 3-1 | Yunnan Yukun | China Super League |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan 2026-10-09
- Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG 2026-10-09
- Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Qingdao Youth Island v Dalian Zhixing — match page 2026-10-11
- Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng 2026-10-11