Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns: model vs market
| Source | Shenyang Urban | Draw | Wuhan Three Towns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Published | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +2% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shenyang Urban, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shenyang Urban | 2.43 | 2.41 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.73 | -0.12 |
| Wuhan Three Towns | 2.51 | 2.50 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Shenyang Urban / Wuhan Three Towns)
- 0.92 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Shenyang Urban / Wuhan Three Towns)
- 1.26 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shenyang Urban goals. Columns: Wuhan Three Towns goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shenyang Urban | 38% | 2.64 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Wuhan Three Towns | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shenyang Urban or draw) | 63% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Wuhan Three Towns) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shenyang Urban win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns recent form
Shenyang Urban
0W 1D 5L
Wuhan Three Towns
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shenyang Urban at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-6
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wuhan Three Towns away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-6
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 2.31
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shenyang Urban at home only, Wuhan Three Towns away only.
Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Shenyang Urban 0 · draws 1 · Wuhan Three Towns 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Wuhan Three Towns | 2-2 | Shenyang Urban | China Super League |
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