Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG preview
In the China Super League fixture between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG, the model suggests a close contest with probabilities showing Hangzhou Greentown at 39%, a draw at 24%, and SHANGHAI SIPG at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams show potential for scoring, with 63% for both teams to score and a 62% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Hangzhou Greentown's recent form includes two wins and four losses, while SHANGHAI SIPG has been more consistent with four wins in their last six matches. The expected goals are 1.84 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.35 for SHANGHAI SIPG, indicating that while Hangzhou may have a slight edge in scoring, SHANGHAI SIPG's form could challenge that expectation.
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG: model vs market
| Source | Hangzhou Greentown | Draw | SHANGHAI SIPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Published | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Edge | +12% | +1% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.35.
- The market prices Hangzhou Greentown below the model: +12.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.68, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hangzhou Greentown, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hangzhou Greentown | 2.61 | 2.57 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 3.80 | -0.17 |
| SHANGHAI SIPG | 2.27 | 2.30 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Hangzhou Greentown / SHANGHAI SIPG)
- 1.39 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Hangzhou Greentown / SHANGHAI SIPG)
- 1.05 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hangzhou Greentown goals. Columns: SHANGHAI SIPG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hangzhou Greentown | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| SHANGHAI SIPG | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hangzhou Greentown or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or SHANGHAI SIPG) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hangzhou Greentown win by 2+ | 27% | 3.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG recent form
Hangzhou Greentown
2W 1D 3L
SHANGHAI SIPG
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hangzhou Greentown at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 2.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SHANGHAI SIPG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Hangzhou Greentown at home only, SHANGHAI SIPG away only.
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 2 · draws 4 · SHANGHAI SIPG 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2-2 | Hangzhou Greentown | China Super League |
| 2025-10-31 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 3-0 | Hangzhou Greentown | China Super League |
| 2025-06-14 | Hangzhou Greentown | 2-2 | SHANGHAI SIPG | China Super League |
| 2024-07-17 | Hangzhou Greentown | 1-2 | SHANGHAI SIPG | FA Cup |
| 2024-06-29 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 3-1 | Hangzhou Greentown | Super League |
| 2024-03-09 | Hangzhou Greentown | 0-0 | SHANGHAI SIPG | Super League |
| 2023-08-12 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 3-4 | Hangzhou Greentown | Super League |
| 2023-05-14 | Hangzhou Greentown | 1-2 | SHANGHAI SIPG | Super League |
| 2023-01-11 | Hangzhou Greentown | 0-0 | SHANGHAI SIPG | FA Cup |
| 2022-11-22 | Hangzhou Greentown | 2-1 | SHANGHAI SIPG | Super League |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan 2026-10-09
- Shanghai Shenhua v Yunnan Yukun — match page 2026-10-10
- Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Qingdao Youth Island v Dalian Zhixing — match page 2026-10-11
- Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng 2026-10-11