Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec: model vs market
| Source | Guayaquil City FC | Draw | Emelec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Edge | +21% | -4% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Guayaquil City FC below the model: +20.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.72, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Guayaquil City FC, 31 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guayaquil City FC | 2.68 | 2.66 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 2.92 | 2.95 | +0.03 |
| Emelec | 2.65 | 2.60 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Guayaquil City FC and Emelec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Guayaquil City FC / Emelec)
- 1.20 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Guayaquil City FC / Emelec)
- 1.09 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guayaquil City FC goals. Columns: Emelec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guayaquil City FC | 39% | 2.54 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Emelec | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.02 |
| No | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guayaquil City FC or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Emelec) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guayaquil City FC win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Guayaquil City FC and Emelec recent form
Guayaquil City FC
3W 1D 2L
Emelec
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guayaquil City FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-7-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-8
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 0.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guayaquil City FC at home only, Emelec away only.
Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Guayaquil City FC 1 · draws 1 · Emelec 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Guayaquil City FC | 0-0 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-18 | Emelec | 1-3 | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro |