Libertad vs Leones del Norte preview
Libertad faces Leones del Norte with a 40% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 14% likelihood. Libertad's expected goals stand at 1.36, while Leones del Norte has 0.80.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score has a 42% chance, indicating that Leones del Norte could find the net, despite their recent form showing two losses in their last three matches. Libertad's recent form includes three wins in their last five, but they have not won against Leones del Norte in their last two encounters. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Libertad vs Leones del Norte: model vs market
| Source | Libertad | Draw | Leones del Norte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 38% | 31% | 32% |
| Published | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Edge | +11% | 0% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Libertad below the model: +11.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Libertad vs Leones del Norte odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Libertad, 31 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 2.45 | 2.45 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.01 | -0.09 |
| Leones del Norte | 2.90 | 2.90 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Libertad and Leones del Norte expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Libertad / Leones del Norte)
- 1.10 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Libertad / Leones del Norte)
- 0.84 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Libertad vs Leones del Norte score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Libertad goals. Columns: Leones del Norte goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Libertad vs Leones del Norte goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Libertad vs Leones del Norte
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 40% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Leones del Norte | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.38 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Libertad or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Leones del Norte) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Libertad win by 2+ | 24% | 4.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Libertad and Leones del Norte recent form
Libertad
3W 1D 2L
Leones del Norte
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Libertad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leones del Norte away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Libertad at home only, Leones del Norte away only.
Libertad vs Leones del Norte head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Libertad 0 · draws 1 · Leones del Norte 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Libertad | 1-3 | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro |
| 2026-02-28 | Leones del Norte | 1-1 | Libertad | Liga Pro |