Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla Prediction & Betting Tips 31/10/2026

Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla preview

In the fixture between Abu Qair Semad and Ghazl El Mehalla, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a slight edge for Ghazl El Mehalla at 39%, compared to 27% for Abu Qair Semad. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance of occurring.

Abu Qair Semad has struggled recently, recording six consecutive matches without a win. Their expected goals stand at 0.86, while Ghazl El Mehalla has a higher expected goals figure of 1.09. With both teams to score at 40% and Over 2.5 goals at 31%, the match could see fewer goals than anticipated if Abu Qair Semad's form continues.

Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Abu Qair Semad	Draw	Ghazl El Mehalla
Model	27%	34%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	27%	34%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Abu Qair Semad and Ghazl El Mehalla expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.86Abu Qair Semad

1.09Ghazl El Mehalla

Total expected goals: 1.96
Attack rating (Abu Qair Semad / Ghazl El Mehalla): 0.68 / 0.81
Defence rating (Abu Qair Semad / Ghazl El Mehalla): 1.32 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.5% 14.1% 8.5% 3.1% 1.1% 1 10.9% 14.7% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 5.3% 5.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 3 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Abu Qair Semad goals. Columns: Ghazl El Mehalla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 31%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Abu Qair Semad	27%	3.69
	Draw	34%	2.97
	Ghazl El Mehalla	39%	2.55
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	31%	3.21
	Under 2.5	69%	1.45
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.51
	No	60%	1.66
Double chance	1X (Abu Qair Semad or draw)	61%	1.65
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or Ghazl El Mehalla)	73%	1.37
Handicap -1	Ghazl El Mehalla win by 2+	17%	6.02
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Abu Qair Semad and Ghazl El Mehalla recent form

Abu Qair Semad 0W 1D 5L

Ghazl El Mehalla 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Abu Qair Semad at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 1.33
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
They average 0.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ghazl El Mehalla away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.33
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Abu Qair Semad at home only, Ghazl El Mehalla away only.

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Before and after this match

Abu Qair Semad, previous: AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad: odds and pick
Ghazl El Mehalla, previous: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad prediction

Prediction snapshot Ghazl El Mehalla to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Ghazl El Mehalla