Al Ittihad vs El Geish preview
In the upcoming match between Al Ittihad and El Geish, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Ittihad at 40% to win, while El Geish stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Al Ittihad's expected goals are 1.75 compared to El Geish's 0.71, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the recent form could impact the outcome. Al Ittihad has mixed results with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while El Geish has struggled, with 4 losses in their last 5. The model suggests a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score, but if El Geish improves their form, these predictions could be challenged.
Al Ittihad vs El Geish: model vs market
| Source | Al Ittihad | Draw | El Geish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 34% | 35% | 31% |
| Published | 41% | 32% | 26% |
| Edge | +7% | -2% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al Ittihad below our published probability: +6.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +19.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al Ittihad vs El Geish odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Ittihad, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ittihad | 2.80 | 2.66 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 2.62 | 2.62 | +0.00 |
| El Geish | 2.80 | 2.98 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Ittihad and El Geish expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Al Ittihad / El Geish)
- 1.18 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Al Ittihad / El Geish)
- 0.94 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Ittihad vs El Geish score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Ittihad goals. Columns: El Geish goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Ittihad vs El Geish goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Ittihad vs El Geish
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ittihad | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.08 | |
| El Geish | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Ittihad or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or El Geish) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ittihad win by 2+ | 36% | 2.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Ittihad and El Geish recent form
Al Ittihad
4W 0D 2L
El Geish
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Ittihad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
El Geish away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Ittihad at home only, El Geish away only.
Al Ittihad vs El Geish head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al Ittihad 2 · draws 0 · El Geish 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Al Ittihad | 1-0 | El Geish | Egypt Premier League |
| 2026-02-06 | El Geish | 0-1 | Al Ittihad | Egypt Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Zamalek SC v El Mokawloon — match page 2026-10-28
- Future FC vs Al Ahly — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Pyramids FC vs Wadi Degla 2026-10-29
- Asyut Petrol v El Gouna FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Olympic El Qanah vs Enppi 2026-10-30
- Abu Qair Semad v Ghazl El Mehalla — match page 2026-10-31
- Petrojet vs Smouha SC — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ceramica Cleopatra vs Masr 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Al Ittihad, previous: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad prediction
- El Geish, previous: El Geish vs Pyramids FC: odds and pick