Mansfield Town vs Oxford United preview
Mansfield Town faces Oxford United with a 35% chance of winning compared to Oxford's 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Oxford's expected goals of 1.76 against Mansfield's 1.47. Both teams to score has a 65% probability, indicating a strong likelihood of goals from both sides.
The model also suggests a 63% chance of Over 2.5 goals, reflecting the attacking potential of both teams. However, Mansfield's recent form shows a mixed bag with only 1 win in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. In contrast, Oxford has been more consistent, with 3 wins in their last 6 games.
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United: model vs market
| Source | Mansfield Town | Draw | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Oxford United, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield Town | 2.46 | 2.55 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | +0.15 |
| Oxford United | 2.55 | 2.52 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mansfield Town and Oxford United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Mansfield Town / Oxford United)
- 1.07 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Mansfield Town / Oxford United)
- 1.24 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mansfield Town goals. Columns: Oxford United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mansfield Town vs Oxford United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Oxford United | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mansfield Town or draw) | 56% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Oxford United) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win by 2+ | 24% | 4.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mansfield Town and Oxford United recent form
Mansfield Town
1W 2D 3L
Oxford United
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mansfield Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oxford United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mansfield Town at home only, Oxford United away only.
Before and after this match
- Mansfield Town, previous: Mansfield Town – Bromley, 2026-10-10
- Oxford United, previous: Notts County vs Oxford United prediction