Notts County vs Oxford United preview
In the League One fixture between Notts County and Oxford United, the model gives Oxford United a slight edge with a 37% probability of winning compared to Notts County's 35%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% chance. Both teams to score has a 48% probability, indicating a close contest where both sides could find the net.
Notts County's recent form shows two losses and four draws in their last six matches, while Oxford United has won three of their last six. This recent performance could influence the outcome, but the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions. Over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, which reflects the potential for a higher-scoring game.
Notts County vs Oxford United: model vs market
| Source | Notts County | Draw | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | -7% | +3% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Oxford United below the model: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.64, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Notts County vs Oxford United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Oxford United, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 2.80 | 2.51 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| Oxford United | 2.40 | 2.60 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Notts County and Oxford United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Notts County / Oxford United)
- 0.78 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Notts County / Oxford United)
- 0.89 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Notts County vs Oxford United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Notts County goals. Columns: Oxford United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Notts County vs Oxford United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Notts County vs Oxford United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Oxford United | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Notts County or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Oxford United) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win by 2+ | 18% | 5.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Notts County and Oxford United recent form
Notts County
1W 3D 2L
Oxford United
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Notts County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oxford United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Notts County at home only, Oxford United away only.
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