Doncaster vs Burton Albion: model vs market
| Source | Doncaster | Draw | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | -11% | +3% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.25.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Doncaster vs Burton Albion odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Doncaster, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster | 1.80 | 1.65 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.90 | +0.38 |
| Burton Albion | 4.15 | 4.56 | +0.41 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Doncaster and Burton Albion expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Doncaster / Burton Albion)
- 0.94 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Doncaster / Burton Albion)
- 1.02 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Doncaster vs Burton Albion score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Doncaster goals. Columns: Burton Albion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Doncaster vs Burton Albion goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Doncaster vs Burton Albion
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Doncaster | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Burton Albion | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Doncaster or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Burton Albion) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Doncaster win by 2+ | 24% | 4.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Doncaster and Burton Albion recent form
Doncaster
1W 2D 3L
Burton Albion
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Doncaster at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burton Albion away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Doncaster at home only, Burton Albion away only.
Doncaster vs Burton Albion head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Doncaster 1 · draws 1 · Burton Albion 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Burton Albion | 1-2 | Doncaster | League One |
| 2025-10-04 | Doncaster | 1-1 | Burton Albion | League One |
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