Stevenage vs Wigan: model vs market
| Source | Stevenage | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 30% | 18% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Edge | +9% | +1% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stevenage below the model: +9.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Stevenage vs Wigan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stevenage, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 2.20 | 2.15 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.20 | -0.04 |
| Wigan | 3.21 | 3.25 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stevenage and Wigan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Stevenage / Wigan)
- 0.98 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Stevenage / Wigan)
- 0.93 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stevenage vs Wigan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stevenage goals. Columns: Wigan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stevenage vs Wigan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stevenage vs Wigan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Wigan | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stevenage or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Wigan) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stevenage win by 2+ | 27% | 3.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stevenage and Wigan recent form
Stevenage
2W 2D 2L
Wigan
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stevenage at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Wigan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stevenage at home only, Wigan away only.
Stevenage vs Wigan head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Stevenage 1 · draws 1 · Wigan 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Stevenage | 1-0 | Wigan | League One |
| 2025-11-29 | Wigan | 0-0 | Stevenage | League One |
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