Leicester vs Peterborough: model vs market
| Source | Leicester | Draw | Peterborough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Edge | -10% | +5% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.61, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Leicester vs Peterborough odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Leicester, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 1.60 | 1.57 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.03 |
| Peterborough | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leicester and Peterborough expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Leicester / Peterborough)
- 0.94 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Leicester / Peterborough)
- 1.10 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leicester vs Peterborough score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leicester goals. Columns: Peterborough goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leicester vs Peterborough goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leicester vs Peterborough
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leicester | 56% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Peterborough | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leicester or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Peterborough) | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leicester win by 2+ | 26% | 3.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leicester and Peterborough recent form
Leicester
2W 2D 2L
Peterborough
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leicester at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Peterborough away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leicester at home only, Peterborough away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Sheffield Wednesday — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Bradford v Leyton Orient — match page 2026-10-10
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Doncaster vs Burton Albion 2026-10-10
- Wycombe v Luton — match page 2026-10-10
- Stevenage vs Wigan — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Cambridge United vs Blackpool 2026-10-10
- Mansfield Town v Bromley — match page 2026-10-10