Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon preview
Plymouth faces AFC Wimbledon with a strong 62% probability to win in the 1X2 market. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Plymouth's expected goals of 1.89 compared to AFC Wimbledon's 0.72. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
While Plymouth has a recent form of three wins in their last five matches, AFC Wimbledon has been more inconsistent, with two wins in their last five. The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 48%, and both teams to score is at 45%. This suggests that while Plymouth is favored, AFC Wimbledon could still pose a challenge, making the outcome less predictable.
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon: model vs market
| Source | Plymouth | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Published | 62% | 22% | 15% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Plymouth below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Plymouth, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 1.45 | 1.50 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.20 | -0.10 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 6.00 | 5.71 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Plymouth / AFC Wimbledon)
- 1.34 / 0.64
- Defence rating (Plymouth / AFC Wimbledon)
- 0.95 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Plymouth goals. Columns: AFC Wimbledon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth | 62% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.47 | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 15% | 6.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.24 |
| No | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Plymouth or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or AFC Wimbledon) | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon recent form
Plymouth
4W 0D 2L
AFC Wimbledon
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Plymouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AFC Wimbledon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Plymouth at home only, AFC Wimbledon away only.
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Plymouth 1 · draws 0 · AFC Wimbledon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | AFC Wimbledon | 1-3 | Plymouth | League One |
| 2025-10-18 | Plymouth | 1-2 | AFC Wimbledon | League One |
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