League Two · Matchday 9Postponed

Colchester vs Port Vale

· Colchester Community Stadium, Colchester

Alin prediction Colchester to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ColchesterDrawPort Vale

Colchester vs Port Vale: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceColchesterDrawPort Vale
Model54%29%16%
Market———
Published54%29%16%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.68.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Colchester vs Port Vale odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Colchester, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.67Now 2.60 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Colchester2.672.60-0.06
Draw3.383.37-0.01
Port Vale2.452.59+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Colchester and Port Vale expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Colchester
0.68Port Vale
Total expected goals
2.11
Attack rating (Colchester / Port Vale)
0.99 / 0.55
Defence rating (Colchester / Port Vale)
1.05 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Colchester vs Port Vale score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.3% 7.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1 16.2% 12.9% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2 12.5% 8.4% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 3 6.0% 4.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 2.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Colchester goals. Columns: Port Vale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Colchester vs Port Vale goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Colchester vs Port Vale

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Colchester54%1.84
Draw29%3.41
Port Vale16%6.11
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.82
Under 2.565%1.55
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.59
No61%1.63
Double chance1X (Colchester or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)71%1.42
X2 (draw or Port Vale)46%2.19
Handicap -1Colchester win by 2+28%3.56
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Colchester and Port Vale recent form

Colchester 1W 3D 2L
Port Vale 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Colchester at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

Port Vale away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Colchester at home only, Port Vale away only.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures