League Two · Matchday 9Postponed

Walsall vs Crawley Town

· Bescot Stadium, Walsall

Alin prediction Walsall to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WalsallDrawCrawley Town

Walsall vs Crawley Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWalsallDrawCrawley Town
Model57%28%15%
Market58%23%20%
Published57%24%19%
Edge0%+5%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.68.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Walsall vs Crawley Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Walsall, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.71Now 1.62 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Walsall1.711.62-0.09
Draw4.074.05-0.02
Crawley Town4.034.70+0.67

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Walsall and Crawley Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Walsall
0.68Crawley Town
Total expected goals
2.23
Attack rating (Walsall / Crawley Town)
0.91 / 0.77
Defence rating (Walsall / Crawley Town)
0.76 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Walsall vs Crawley Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.8% 6.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1 15.5% 12.5% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 2 12.9% 8.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 3 6.7% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 3.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Walsall goals. Columns: Crawley Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Walsall vs Crawley Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Walsall vs Crawley Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Walsall57%1.74
Draw24%4.17
Crawley Town19%5.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.58
Under 2.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.49
No60%1.67
Double chance1X (Walsall or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Crawley Town)43%2.35
Handicap -1Walsall win by 2+31%3.21
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Walsall and Crawley Town recent form

Walsall 2W 4D 0L
Crawley Town 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Walsall at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Crawley Town away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Walsall at home only, Crawley Town away only.

Walsall vs Crawley Town head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Walsall 2 · draws 7 · Crawley Town 1.

WalsallDrawsCrawley Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-27Walsall0-0Crawley TownLeague Two
2025-10-11Crawley Town1-1WalsallLeague Two
2024-02-13Crawley Town1-1WalsallLeague Two
2023-10-24Walsall1-1Crawley TownLeague Two
2023-04-29Crawley Town0-0WalsallLeague Two
2022-11-19Walsall2-1Crawley TownLeague Two
2022-04-18Crawley Town1-0WalsallLeague Two
2021-12-07Walsall1-1Crawley TownLeague Two
2021-03-16Crawley Town1-1WalsallLeague Two
2020-11-03Walsall1-0Crawley TownLeague Two

Other Matchday 9 fixtures