AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki: model vs market
| Source | AC Oulu | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 33% | 49% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Published | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Edge | -9% | +6% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices HJK Helsinki below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HJK Helsinki, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu | 3.39 | 3.39 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| HJK Helsinki | 1.96 | 1.96 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.88
- Attack rating (AC Oulu / HJK Helsinki)
- 0.56 / 0.98
- Defence rating (AC Oulu / HJK Helsinki)
- 0.90 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AC Oulu goals. Columns: HJK Helsinki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Oulu | 25% | 4.02 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| HJK Helsinki | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.85 |
| No | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AC Oulu or draw) | 53% | 1.90 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or HJK Helsinki) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win by 2+ | 23% | 4.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki recent form
AC Oulu
1W 1D 4L
HJK Helsinki
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AC Oulu at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-5
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HJK Helsinki away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AC Oulu at home only, HJK Helsinki away only.
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: AC Oulu 1 · draws 0 · HJK Helsinki 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | AC Oulu | 0-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-11 | HJK Helsinki | 0-1 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-07-20 | HJK Helsinki | 3-1 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-06-14 | AC Oulu | 0-4 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
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