Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg preview
Energie Cottbus faces 1. FC Nürnberg with a 32% chance of winning for Cottbus and a 44% chance for Nürnberg. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% probability. Cottbus has an expected goals figure of 1.60, while Nürnberg's is higher at 1.90.
The model predicts a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 69%. However, Cottbus's recent form shows only 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. In contrast, Nürnberg is in better form with 5 wins and 2 draws in their last 7 games.
Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg: model vs market
| Source | Energie Cottbus | Draw | 1. FC Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Energie Cottbus / 1. FC Nürnberg)
- 1.28 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Energie Cottbus / 1. FC Nürnberg)
- 1.09 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Energie Cottbus goals. Columns: 1. FC Nürnberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Energie Cottbus | 32% | 3.13 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Energie Cottbus or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or 1. FC Nürnberg) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Nürnberg win by 2+ | 25% | 4.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg recent form
Energie Cottbus
1W 2D 3L
1. FC Nürnberg
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Energie Cottbus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
1. FC Nürnberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Energie Cottbus at home only, 1. FC Nürnberg away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Energie Cottbus, previous: Darmstadt v Energie Cottbus analysis
- 1. FC Nürnberg, previous: 1. FC Nürnberg v Wolfsburg analysis