Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC preview
In the 2. Bundesliga fixture between Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC, the 1X2 probabilities show Hertha BSC at 42%, compared to Holstein Kiel's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Holstein Kiel has struggled recently, with a record of L-D-L-D-L-W, while Hertha BSC is in strong form, having won 5 of their last 6 matches.
The model suggests a 53% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. Holstein Kiel has expected goals of 1.28, while Hertha BSC has 1.51. If Holstein Kiel can improve their scoring, it could challenge the predicted outcome.
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC: model vs market
| Source | Holstein Kiel | Draw | Hertha BSC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 28% | 42% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Holstein Kiel / Hertha BSC)
- 0.81 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Holstein Kiel / Hertha BSC)
- 0.87 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Holstein Kiel goals. Columns: Hertha BSC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holstein Kiel | 31% | 3.23 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Hertha BSC | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Holstein Kiel or draw) | 58% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Hertha BSC) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hertha BSC win by 2+ | 21% | 4.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
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Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC recent form
Holstein Kiel
1W 2D 3L
Hertha BSC
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Holstein Kiel at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Hertha BSC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Holstein Kiel at home only, Hertha BSC away only.
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Holstein Kiel 1 · draws 0 · Hertha BSC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Hertha BSC | 0-1 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-29 | Holstein Kiel | 0-1 | Hertha BSC | 2. Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Holstein Kiel, previous: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel prediction
- Hertha BSC, previous: Hertha BSC – SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 2026-10-11