Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth: model vs market
| Source | Hertha BSC | Draw | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Published | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hertha BSC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha BSC | 1.57 | 1.57 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.00 |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Hertha BSC / SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
- 1.30 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Hertha BSC / SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
- 0.96 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hertha BSC goals. Columns: SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hertha BSC | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.68 | |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 20% | 5.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hertha BSC or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hertha BSC win by 2+ | 35% | 2.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth recent form
Hertha BSC
5W 1D 0L
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hertha BSC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Hertha BSC at home only, SpVgg Greuther Fürth away only.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hertha BSC 1 · draws 1 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Hertha BSC | 2-1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 3-3 | Hertha BSC | 2. Bundesliga |
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