St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC: model vs market
| Source | St. Pauli | Draw | Karlsruher SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Published | 52% | 24% | 25% |
| Edge | -13% | +5% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Pauli, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli | 1.69 | 1.69 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
| Karlsruher SC | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (St. Pauli / Karlsruher SC)
- 0.76 / 0.87
- Defence rating (St. Pauli / Karlsruher SC)
- 1.09 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Pauli goals. Columns: Karlsruher SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Pauli | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Karlsruher SC | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Pauli or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Karlsruher SC) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Pauli win by 2+ | 21% | 4.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC recent form
St. Pauli
1W 3D 2L
Karlsruher SC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St. Pauli at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Karlsruher SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: St. Pauli at home only, Karlsruher SC away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Hannover 96 — match page 2026-10-10
- Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus 2026-10-10
- VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden 2026-10-10
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Hertha BSC v SpVgg Greuther Fürth — match page 2026-10-11
- Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld 2026-10-11