Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus preview
Darmstadt faces Energie Cottbus with a close 1X2 probability split: Darmstadt at 38%, Energie Cottbus at 39%, and a 23% chance of a draw. The expected goals suggest a more favorable attacking position for Energie Cottbus, with 2.24 expected goals compared to Darmstadt's 1.37. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 67%.
However, Darmstadt's recent form shows inconsistency, with three losses in their last six matches. This could impact their performance, making it possible for the match to deviate from the expected outcomes. Energie Cottbus, on the other hand, has a mixed recent record, which may also influence the match dynamics.
Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus: model vs market
| Source | Darmstadt | Draw | Energie Cottbus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Published | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| Edge | -21% | -2% | +23% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.37.
- The market prices Energie Cottbus below the model: +23.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.05, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Energie Cottbus, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.91 | 3.90 | -0.01 |
| Energie Cottbus | 2.86 | 2.84 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Darmstadt and Energie Cottbus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (Darmstadt / Energie Cottbus)
- 0.77 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Darmstadt / Energie Cottbus)
- 1.32 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Darmstadt goals. Columns: Energie Cottbus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Darmstadt | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Energie Cottbus | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Darmstadt or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Energie Cottbus) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Energie Cottbus win by 2+ | 36% | 2.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Darmstadt and Energie Cottbus recent form
Darmstadt
2W 0D 4L
Energie Cottbus
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Darmstadt at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Energie Cottbus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Darmstadt at home only, Energie Cottbus away only.
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