Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld: model vs market
| Source | Bochum | Draw | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bochum below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bochum, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum | 2.26 | 2.26 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.51 | 3.51 | +0.00 |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Bochum / Arminia Bielefeld)
- 0.87 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Bochum / Arminia Bielefeld)
- 0.88 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bochum goals. Columns: Arminia Bielefeld goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bochum | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bochum or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Arminia Bielefeld) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bochum win by 2+ | 25% | 3.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld recent form
Bochum
3W 1D 2L
Arminia Bielefeld
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bochum at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Arminia Bielefeld away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bochum at home only, Arminia Bielefeld away only.
Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bochum 1 · draws 1 · Arminia Bielefeld 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1-1 | Bochum | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-06 | Bochum | 1-0 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
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