Updated

Super League 2 · Matchday 5

Olympiakos Piraeus II vs Kallithea

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Kallithea to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Olympiakos Piraeus IIDrawKallithea

Olympiakos Piraeus II vs Kallithea: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOlympiakos Piraeus IIDrawKallithea
Model19%26%55%
Market24%28%48%
Published23%27%50%
Edge-5%-2%+7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.93.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kallithea below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Olympiakos Piraeus II vs Kallithea odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kallithea, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 1.85Now 1.90 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Olympiakos Piraeus II3.803.77-0.02
Draw3.303.30+0.00
Kallithea1.851.90+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Olympiakos Piraeus II and Kallithea expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.93Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.72Kallithea
Total expected goals
2.66
Attack rating (Olympiakos Piraeus II / Kallithea)
0.93 / 1.17
Defence rating (Olympiakos Piraeus II / Kallithea)
1.56 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olympiakos Piraeus II vs Kallithea score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 11.0% 10.4% 6.0% 3.8% 1 5.4% 12.4% 9.7% 5.6% 3.5% 2 3.1% 5.3% 4.5% 2.6% 1.7% 3 1.0% 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 4+ 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Olympiakos Piraeus II goals. Columns: Kallithea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olympiakos Piraeus II vs Kallithea goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olympiakos Piraeus II vs Kallithea

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Olympiakos Piraeus II23%4.35
Draw27%3.66
Kallithea50%2.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.02
Under 2.550%1.98
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.96
No49%2.04
Double chance1X (Olympiakos Piraeus II or draw)50%1.99
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Kallithea)77%1.30
Handicap -1Kallithea win by 2+31%3.21
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Olympiakos Piraeus II and Kallithea recent form

Olympiakos Piraeus II 1W 2D 3L
Kallithea 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Olympiakos Piraeus II at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Kallithea away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus II at home only, Kallithea away only.

Olympiakos Piraeus II vs Kallithea head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus II 2 · draws 1 · Kallithea 3.

Olympiakos Piraeus IIDrawsKallithea
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-13Olympiakos Piraeus II0-0KallitheaSuper League 2
2025-10-12Kallithea2-3Olympiakos Piraeus IISuper League 2
2024-01-06Olympiakos Piraeus II1-2KallitheaSuper League 2
2023-10-01Kallithea3-2Olympiakos Piraeus IISuper League 2
2023-04-29Olympiakos Piraeus II5-4KallitheaSuper League 2
2022-12-19Kallithea2-1Olympiakos Piraeus IISuper League 2

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match