Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar: model vs market
| Source | Thor Akureyri | Draw | IBV Vestmannaeyjar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Published | 34% | 28% | 39% |
| Edge | +2% | +3% | -5% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IBV Vestmannaeyjar, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thor Akureyri | 2.78 | 2.78 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.45 | -0.03 |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2.29 | 2.31 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Thor Akureyri and IBV Vestmannaeyjar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Thor Akureyri / IBV Vestmannaeyjar)
- 0.64 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Thor Akureyri / IBV Vestmannaeyjar)
- 1.16 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Thor Akureyri goals. Columns: IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Thor Akureyri | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.94 |
| No | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Thor Akureyri or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar win by 2+ | 16% | 6.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Thor Akureyri and IBV Vestmannaeyjar recent form
Thor Akureyri
2W 0D 4L
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Thor Akureyri at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-7
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Thor Akureyri at home only, IBV Vestmannaeyjar away only.
Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Thor Akureyri 1 · draws 3 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 0-1 | Thor Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-06-14 | Thor Akureyri | 1-4 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-07-27 | Thor Akureyri | 0-3 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1. Deild |
| 2024-05-20 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-1 | Thor Akureyri | 1. Deild |
| 2021-08-31 | Thor Akureyri | 0-1 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1. Deild |
| 2021-06-14 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-1 | Thor Akureyri | 1. Deild |
| 2020-09-21 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-2 | Thor Akureyri | 1. Deild |
| 2020-07-18 | Thor Akureyri | 1-1 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1. Deild |
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