Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur: model vs market
| Source | Valur Reykjavik | Draw | FH hafnarfjordur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market | 42% | 23% | 34% |
| Published | 39% | 24% | 36% |
| Edge | -12% | +3% | +9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Valur Reykjavik, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valur Reykjavik | 2.16 | 2.18 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.00 |
| FH hafnarfjordur | 2.70 | 2.71 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valur Reykjavik and FH hafnarfjordur expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Valur Reykjavik / FH hafnarfjordur)
- 0.98 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Valur Reykjavik / FH hafnarfjordur)
- 1.06 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valur Reykjavik goals. Columns: FH hafnarfjordur goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valur Reykjavik | 39% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | |
| FH hafnarfjordur | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valur Reykjavik or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or FH hafnarfjordur) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valur Reykjavik win by 2+ | 14% | 7.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Valur Reykjavik and FH hafnarfjordur recent form
Valur Reykjavik
2W 3D 1L
FH hafnarfjordur
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valur Reykjavik at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FH hafnarfjordur away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-5
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.09
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Valur Reykjavik at home only, FH hafnarfjordur away only.
Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Valur Reykjavik 2 · draws 1 · FH hafnarfjordur 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | FH hafnarfjordur | 2-0 | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-04-23 | Valur Reykjavik | 3-0 | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-10-19 | Valur Reykjavik | 4-4 | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-07-27 | Valur Reykjavik | 3-1 | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-05-04 | FH hafnarfjordur | 3-0 | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
Other Relegation Group - 3 fixtures
- Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri 2026-10-10
- Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2026-10-10