Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey preview
Atyrau faces Yelimay Semey with 28% chances for Atyrau to win, 31% for a draw, and 41% for Yelimay Semey to take the match. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring 12% of the time according to our model. With Atyrau's expected goals at 1.00 and Yelimay Semey's at 1.27, the match could lean towards a low-scoring outcome.
The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 40%, while both teams to score stands at 47%. Atyrau's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Yelimay Semey has won 4 of their last 6. This disparity in form could affect the final result, making it less predictable.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey: model vs market
| Source | Atyrau | Draw | Yelimay Semey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Published | 25% | 28% | 46% |
| Edge | +3% | +3% | -7% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Yelimay Semey, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atyrau | 3.82 | 3.82 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.42 | +0.00 |
| Yelimay Semey | 1.96 | 1.96 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Atyrau / Yelimay Semey)
- 0.64 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Atyrau / Yelimay Semey)
- 1.17 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atyrau goals. Columns: Yelimay Semey goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atyrau | 25% | 3.94 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Yelimay Semey | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atyrau or draw) | 54% | 1.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Yelimay Semey) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yelimay Semey win by 2+ | 19% | 5.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey recent form
Atyrau
1W 1D 4L
Yelimay Semey
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atyrau at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-6
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 25 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yelimay Semey away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atyrau at home only, Yelimay Semey away only.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atyrau 2 · draws 0 · Yelimay Semey 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Yelimay Semey | 1-2 | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Yelimay Semey | 3-2 | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-03-01 | Atyrau | 2-1 | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Atyrau, previous: Zhenys – Atyrau, 2026-10-10
- Yelimay Semey, previous: Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe: odds and pick