Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe preview
Yelimay Semey faces Aktobe in the Kazakhstan Premier League with a 45% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects a close match given both teams' expected goals are nearly equal at 1.48 for Yelimay Semey and 1.47 for Aktobe.
The market suggests a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 61%. However, Yelimay Semey's recent form shows mixed results with three wins in their last six matches, while Aktobe has two wins in their last six. This inconsistency could affect the outcome and the predicted scoreline.
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe: model vs market
| Source | Yelimay Semey | Draw | Aktobe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 48% | 23% | 30% |
| Published | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Edge | -11% | +4% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Yelimay Semey, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yelimay Semey | 1.93 | 1.94 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.11 | 4.04 | -0.08 |
| Aktobe | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Yelimay Semey and Aktobe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Yelimay Semey / Aktobe)
- 0.97 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Yelimay Semey / Aktobe)
- 1.06 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Yelimay Semey goals. Columns: Aktobe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yelimay Semey | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Aktobe | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Yelimay Semey or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Aktobe) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yelimay Semey win by 2+ | 18% | 5.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Yelimay Semey and Aktobe recent form
Yelimay Semey
3W 1D 2L
Aktobe
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Yelimay Semey at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aktobe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-7
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Yelimay Semey at home only, Aktobe away only.
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Yelimay Semey 2 · draws 0 · Aktobe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Aktobe | 1-4 | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-08-10 | Yelimay Semey | 2-1 | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-05-11 | Aktobe | 1-0 | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League |
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