FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana preview
FK Tobol Kostanay hosts FC Astana in the Kazakhstan Premier League, with the market showing a 43% chance for an Astana win compared to 33% for Tobol. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.31 for Tobol and 1.50 for Astana.
Both teams to score has a 58% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. Recent form favors Astana, who have won four of their last six matches, while Tobol has won three out of six. However, if Tobol can improve their defensive performance, they could disrupt Astana's scoring chances and change the outcome.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana: model vs market
| Source | FK Tobol Kostanay | Draw | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 22% | 44% |
| Published | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Edge | -2% | +5% | -3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Astana, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 2.78 | 2.73 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 4.21 | 4.11 | -0.10 |
| FC Astana | 2.05 | 2.10 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (FK Tobol Kostanay / FC Astana)
- 1.11 / 1.30
- Defence rating (FK Tobol Kostanay / FC Astana)
- 1.02 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Tobol Kostanay goals. Columns: FC Astana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| FC Astana | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Tobol Kostanay or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Astana) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win by 2+ | 20% | 4.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana recent form
FK Tobol Kostanay
4W 0D 2L
FC Astana
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Tobol Kostanay at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
FC Astana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Tobol Kostanay at home only, FC Astana away only.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FK Tobol Kostanay 1 · draws 0 · FC Astana 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | FC Astana | 2-0 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-09-19 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 2-3 | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-05-10 | FC Astana | 1-3 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Kairat Almaty v Zhetysu — match page 2026-10-10
- Zhenys vs Atyrau 2026-10-10
- Ulytau v Okzhetpes — match page 2026-10-11
- Kaspiy vs Altay 2026-10-11
- Kaisar v Ordabasy — match page 2026-10-11