Kaspiy vs Altay: model vs market
| Source | Kaspiy | Draw | Altay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.30.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kaspiy and Altay expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (Kaspiy / Altay)
- 0.99 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Kaspiy / Altay)
- 1.09 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kaspiy vs Altay score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kaspiy goals. Columns: Altay goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kaspiy vs Altay goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kaspiy vs Altay
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kaspiy | 50% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Altay | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kaspiy or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Altay) | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kaspiy win by 2+ | 28% | 3.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kaspiy and Altay recent form
Kaspiy
2W 2D 2L
Altay
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kaspiy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Altay away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-8
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kaspiy at home only, Altay away only.
Kaspiy vs Altay head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Kaspiy 0 · draws 1 · Altay 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Altay | 0-0 | Kaspiy | Kazakhstan Premier League |
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