Kaisar vs Ordabasy: model vs market
| Source | Kaisar | Draw | Ordabasy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 25% | 60% |
| Market | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Published | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Edge | 0% | +6% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kaisar vs Ordabasy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ordabasy, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaisar | 6.17 | 6.17 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.76 | 4.67 | -0.10 |
| Ordabasy | 1.41 | 1.41 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kaisar and Ordabasy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Kaisar / Ordabasy)
- 0.83 / 1.51
- Defence rating (Kaisar / Ordabasy)
- 1.03 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kaisar vs Ordabasy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kaisar goals. Columns: Ordabasy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kaisar vs Ordabasy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kaisar vs Ordabasy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kaisar | 15% | 6.68 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Ordabasy | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kaisar or draw) | 36% | 2.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Ordabasy) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kaisar and Ordabasy recent form
Kaisar
1W 1D 4L
Ordabasy
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kaisar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 25 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ordabasy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-3
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 12
- They have won 18 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kaisar at home only, Ordabasy away only.
Kaisar vs Ordabasy head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Kaisar 0 · draws 1 · Ordabasy 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Ordabasy | 2-0 | Kaisar | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-08-10 | Kaisar | 1-1 | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-05-11 | Ordabasy | 5-0 | Kaisar | Kazakhstan Premier League |
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- Zhenys vs Atyrau 2026-10-10
- Ulytau v Okzhetpes — match page 2026-10-11
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