Ulytau vs Okzhetpes: model vs market
| Source | Ulytau | Draw | Okzhetpes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| Market | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Published | 33% | 23% | 43% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Okzhetpes below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Okzhetpes, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulytau | 2.67 | 2.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.00 |
| Okzhetpes | 2.17 | 2.17 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ulytau and Okzhetpes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Ulytau / Okzhetpes)
- 0.85 / 1.36
- Defence rating (Ulytau / Okzhetpes)
- 1.21 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ulytau goals. Columns: Okzhetpes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ulytau vs Okzhetpes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulytau | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Okzhetpes | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ulytau or draw) | 57% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Okzhetpes) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Okzhetpes win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ulytau and Okzhetpes recent form
Ulytau
1W 2D 3L
Okzhetpes
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ulytau at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-4
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
Okzhetpes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ulytau at home only, Okzhetpes away only.
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ulytau 0 · draws 0 · Okzhetpes 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Okzhetpes | 2-1 | Ulytau | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-07-19 | Okzhetpes | 1-0 | Ulytau | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-04-19 | Ulytau | 0-1 | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Kairat Almaty v Zhetysu — match page 2026-10-10
- FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Zhenys vs Atyrau 2026-10-10
- Kaspiy vs Altay 2026-10-11
- Kaisar v Ordabasy — match page 2026-10-11