Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar preview
The match between Irtysh and Kyzyl-Zhar shows Irtysh with a 55% chance to win according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Irtysh's expected goals of 1.76 compared to Kyzyl-Zhar's 0.95.
However, both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a possibility that Kyzyl-Zhar could find the net. Irtysh's recent form includes two wins and four losses, while Kyzyl-Zhar has drawn twice and lost four times. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar: model vs market
| Source | Irtysh | Draw | Kyzyl-Zhar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Irtysh and Kyzyl-Zhar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Irtysh / Kyzyl-Zhar)
- 0.94 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Irtysh / Kyzyl-Zhar)
- 1.01 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Irtysh goals. Columns: Kyzyl-Zhar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Irtysh | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 19% | 5.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Irtysh or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Kyzyl-Zhar) | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Irtysh win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Irtysh and Kyzyl-Zhar recent form
Irtysh
3W 0D 3L
Kyzyl-Zhar
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Irtysh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kyzyl-Zhar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-7
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.58
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 25 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Irtysh at home only, Kyzyl-Zhar away only.
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Irtysh 0 · draws 1 · Kyzyl-Zhar 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 2-2 | Irtysh | Kazakhstan Premier League |
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