Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu preview
Kairat Almaty faces Zhetysu in the Kazakhstan Premier League, with a strong 79% probability for a Kairat win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Kairat's expected goals of 2.04 compared to Zhetysu's 0.75.
However, there are factors that could challenge this prediction. Both teams to score has a 47% chance, indicating that Zhetysu could find the net despite their recent struggles. Kairat's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last six matches, which could affect their performance.
Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu: model vs market
| Source | Kairat Almaty | Draw | Zhetysu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 84% | 9% | 8% |
| Published | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| Edge | -17% | +13% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.13, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kairat Almaty, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 11.00 | 10.50 | -0.50 |
| Zhetysu | 12.75 | 12.25 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kairat Almaty and Zhetysu expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Kairat Almaty / Zhetysu)
- 1.01 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Kairat Almaty / Zhetysu)
- 0.98 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kairat Almaty goals. Columns: Zhetysu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kairat Almaty | 79% | 1.26 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.31 | |
| Zhetysu | 9% | 11.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kairat Almaty or draw) | 91% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Zhetysu) | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kairat Almaty win by 2+ | 43% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Kairat Almaty and Zhetysu recent form
Kairat Almaty
3W 0D 3L
Zhetysu
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kairat Almaty at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 12
- They have won 17 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
Zhetysu away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-8
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 2.14
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kairat Almaty at home only, Zhetysu away only.
Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Kairat Almaty 1 · draws 2 · Zhetysu 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Zhetysu | 0-0 | Kairat Almaty | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-10-05 | Kairat Almaty | 5-0 | Zhetysu | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-06-14 | Zhetysu | 2-2 | Kairat Almaty | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
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- Zhenys vs Atyrau 2026-10-10
- Ulytau v Okzhetpes — match page 2026-10-11
- Kaspiy vs Altay 2026-10-11
- Kaisar v Ordabasy — match page 2026-10-11