Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad preview
In the La Liga fixture between Athletic Club and Real Sociedad, the 1X2 probabilities show Athletic Club at 47%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. Athletic Club's expected goals stand at 1.91, while Real Sociedad's expected goals are lower at 1.45. This suggests a potential advantage for Athletic Club.
However, the recent form indicates that Real Sociedad has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Athletic Club has only managed 2 wins in the same period. Both teams to score is at 68%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 67%, which means there is a possibility of a high-scoring match. If Athletic Club's defense struggles, it could impact the expected outcome.
Why this pick: Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Athletic Club 10, Real Sociedad 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: model vs market
| Source | Athletic Club | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 1.98 | 2.08 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.62 | +0.04 |
| Real Sociedad | 3.74 | 3.25 | -0.49 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Athletic Club and Real Sociedad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Athletic Club / Real Sociedad)
- 1.06 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Athletic Club / Real Sociedad)
- 0.94 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Real Sociedad | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Athletic Club or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Sociedad) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win by 2+ | 25% | 3.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Athletic Club and Real Sociedad recent form
Athletic Club
2W 3D 1L
Real Sociedad
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Athletic Club at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Real Sociedad away only.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Athletic Club 2 · draws 2 · Real Sociedad 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Real Sociedad | 1-0 | Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| 2026-02-11 | Athletic Club | 0-1 | Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| 2026-02-01 | Athletic Club | 1-1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Sociedad | 3-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2025-05-04 | Real Sociedad | 0-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2024-11-24 | Athletic Club | 1-0 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2024-01-13 | Athletic Club | 2-1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2023-09-30 | Real Sociedad | 3-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Levante v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-31
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-31
- Real Betis vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Barcelona vs Alaves — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna 2026-11-01
- Elche v Valencia — match page 2026-11-01
- Getafe vs Sevilla 2026-11-01
- Racing Santander vs Real Madrid — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Athletic Club, previous: Prat – Athletic Club, 2026-10-29
- Real Sociedad, previous: Real Sociedad v Levante analysis
- Real Sociedad, next: Real Sociedad v Lyon analysis