Getafe vs Sevilla preview
In the upcoming match between Getafe and Sevilla, the 1X2 probabilities show Sevilla at 36%, Getafe at 33%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score stands at 60%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 55%.
Getafe's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, while Sevilla has 2 wins and 3 draws in the same period. The expected goals are closely matched, with Getafe at 1.37 and Sevilla at 1.42. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is Getafe's home advantage, as they have won 2 of their last 6 encounters against Sevilla, who has won 3.
Why this pick: Getafe vs Sevilla
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Sevilla 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Getafe vs Sevilla: model vs market
| Source | Getafe | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 32% | 31% | 37% |
| Published | 33% | 31% | 37% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Getafe vs Sevilla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sevilla, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 2.82 | 2.97 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 2.97 | 3.00 | +0.03 |
| Sevilla | 2.79 | 2.52 | -0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Getafe and Sevilla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Getafe / Sevilla)
- 0.78 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Getafe / Sevilla)
- 1.30 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Getafe vs Sevilla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Getafe vs Sevilla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Getafe vs Sevilla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 33% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Sevilla | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Getafe or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Sevilla) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sevilla win by 2+ | 17% | 5.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Getafe and Sevilla recent form
Getafe
1W 2D 3L
Sevilla
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Getafe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Sevilla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, Sevilla away only.
Getafe vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Getafe 2 · draws 1 · Sevilla 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Getafe | 0-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-08-25 | Sevilla | 1-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2025-02-01 | Getafe | 0-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2024-09-14 | Sevilla | 1-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-03-30 | Getafe | 0-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2023-12-16 | Sevilla | 0-3 | Getafe | La Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Getafe, previous: Lebrijana – Getafe, 2026-10-29
- Getafe, next: Getafe vs Brighton prediction
- Sevilla, previous: Hortaleza vs Sevilla: odds and pick