Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna preview
In the match between Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo La Coruna at 45%, while Osasuna sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. With expected goals of 2.00 for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.20 for Osasuna, there is a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 63%.
However, Deportivo La Coruna's recent form includes five matches without a win (L-D-L-D-L-D), which could impact their performance. Osasuna, despite a poor run with four losses in their last six (W-L-D-L-L-L), has the potential to surprise. These factors could affect the outcome and the expected goal statistics.
Why this pick: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Deportivo La Coruna 10, Osasuna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo La Coruna | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.13.
- The market prices Deportivo La Coruna below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo La Coruna, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | 2.10 | 2.16 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.25 | +0.15 |
| Osasuna | 3.13 | 3.46 | +0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.07
- Attack rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Osasuna)
- 1.10 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Osasuna)
- 0.97 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Coruna | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Osasuna | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo La Coruna or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Osasuna) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo La Coruna win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna recent form
Deportivo La Coruna
0W 3D 3L
Osasuna
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo La Coruna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Osasuna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 3.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna at home only, Osasuna away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Levante v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-31
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-31
- Real Betis vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Barcelona vs Alaves — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Elche v Valencia — match page 2026-11-01
- Getafe vs Sevilla 2026-11-01
- Racing Santander vs Real Madrid — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Athletic Club v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Deportivo La Coruna, previous: Auriense v Deportivo La Coruna analysis
- Deportivo La Coruna, next: Deportivo La Coruna – Osasuna, 2026-11-02
- Osasuna, previous: Atletico Calatayud v Osasuna analysis
- Osasuna, next: Deportivo La Coruna – Osasuna, 2026-11-02