Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris preview
In the upcoming match between Hegelmann Litauen and Kauno Žalgiris, the 1X2 probabilities show Kauno Žalgiris at 50%, compared to Hegelmann Litauen's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance, suggesting a competitive game. The expected goals indicate Hegelmann Litauen at 1.23 and Kauno Žalgiris at 1.82, reflecting a potential edge for the visitors.
Both teams to score has a 60% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 59%. Hegelmann Litauen's recent form shows 2 draws and 3 losses, while Kauno Žalgiris has won 3 of their last 6 matches. The confidence grade is C, which indicates some uncertainty in the predictions.
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris: model vs market
| Source | Hegelmann Litauen | Draw | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hegelmann Litauen and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Hegelmann Litauen / Kauno Žalgiris)
- 0.73 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Hegelmann Litauen / Kauno Žalgiris)
- 1.38 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hegelmann Litauen goals. Columns: Kauno Žalgiris goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hegelmann Litauen | 25% | 4.03 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hegelmann Litauen or draw) | 50% | 2.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Kauno Žalgiris) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kauno Žalgiris win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hegelmann Litauen and Kauno Žalgiris recent form
Hegelmann Litauen
0W 3D 3L
Kauno Žalgiris
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hegelmann Litauen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-10-4
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kauno Žalgiris away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-2
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 49% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hegelmann Litauen at home only, Kauno Žalgiris away only.
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Hegelmann Litauen 0 · draws 2 · Kauno Žalgiris 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2-0 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| 2026-06-14 | Hegelmann Litauen | 1-1 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2026-04-11 | Kauno Žalgiris | 5-0 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| 2025-10-01 | Hegelmann Litauen | 1-1 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2025-08-27 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2-1 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| 2025-06-19 | Hegelmann Litauen | 1-2 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2025-04-16 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3-1 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Hegelmann Litauen, previous: TransINVEST Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen: odds and pick
- Kauno Žalgiris, previous: Kauno Žalgiris v FK Zalgiris Vilnius analysis
- Kauno Žalgiris, next: FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction