Minija vs Šiauliai: model vs market
| Source | Minija | Draw | Šiauliai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 36% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.86.
- The market prices Minija below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Minija and Šiauliai expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Minija / Šiauliai)
- 1.00 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Minija / Šiauliai)
- 1.00 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Minija vs Šiauliai score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Minija goals. Columns: Šiauliai goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Minija vs Šiauliai goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Minija vs Šiauliai
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minija | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Šiauliai | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Minija or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Šiauliai) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Minija win by 2+ | 30% | 3.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Minija and Šiauliai recent form
Šiauliai
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Šiauliai away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-8-8
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.65
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 6 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Minija at home only, Šiauliai away only.
Minija vs Šiauliai head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Minija 0 · draws 1 · Šiauliai 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-20 | Šiauliai | 2-1 | Minija | 1 Lyga |
| 2021-09-18 | Minija | 1-2 | Šiauliai | 1 Lyga |
| 2020-06-27 | Minija | 2-2 | Šiauliai | 1 Lyga |
| 2019-09-21 | Šiauliai | 5-0 | Minija | 1 Lyga |
| 2019-06-01 | Minija | 0-3 | Šiauliai | 1 Lyga |
Other Final fixtures
- Šiauliai v Minija — match page 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Minija, next: Šiauliai vs Minija: odds and pick
- Šiauliai, previous: Panevėžys vs Šiauliai prediction
- Šiauliai, next: Šiauliai vs Minija: odds and pick