Panevėžys vs Šiauliai preview
In the A Lyga fixture between Panevėžys and Šiauliai, the 1X2 probabilities show Panevėžys at 63% to win, while Šiauliai sits at 12%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% chance according to our model. Panevėžys has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.69 compared to Šiauliai's 0.59, indicating a solid attacking advantage.
However, the recent form could influence the outcome. Panevėžys has won three of their last six matches, while Šiauliai has struggled with only one win in their last six. Both teams to score stands at 38%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 40%, suggesting that while Panevėžys is favored, Šiauliai could still pose a threat if they find their form.
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai: model vs market
| Source | Panevėžys | Draw | Šiauliai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 25% | 12% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Published | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Panevėžys below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Panevėžys, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panevėžys | 1.65 | 1.67 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.73 | -0.09 |
| Šiauliai | 4.05 | 4.03 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Panevėžys and Šiauliai expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Panevėžys / Šiauliai)
- 0.98 / 0.64
- Defence rating (Panevėžys / Šiauliai)
- 0.77 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Panevėžys goals. Columns: Šiauliai goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Panevėžys vs Šiauliai
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panevėžys | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Šiauliai | 20% | 5.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.66 |
| No | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Panevėžys or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Šiauliai) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Panevėžys win by 2+ | 37% | 2.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Panevėžys and Šiauliai recent form
Panevėžys
4W 0D 2L
Šiauliai
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Panevėžys at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Šiauliai away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-8-8
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 4 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Panevėžys at home only, Šiauliai away only.
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Panevėžys 2 · draws 1 · Šiauliai 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Šiauliai | 1-0 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2026-06-20 | Panevėžys | 3-2 | Šiauliai | A Lyga |
| 2026-04-18 | Šiauliai | 3-1 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2025-10-05 | Šiauliai | 3-3 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2025-07-20 | Panevėžys | 2-0 | Šiauliai | A Lyga |
| 2025-06-01 | Šiauliai | 2-1 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2025-03-02 | Panevėžys | 1-3 | Šiauliai | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Panevėžys, previous: Panevėžys v TransINVEST Vilnius analysis
- Šiauliai, previous: Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai: odds and pick