Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius preview
Banga faces FK Zalgiris Vilnius with 31% chances of winning for Banga compared to 42% for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Both teams to score is at 59%, and there is a 55% chance of Over 2.5 goals, indicating a potential for an open game.
Banga's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, while FK Zalgiris Vilnius has 3 wins in their last 6. Despite Banga's 3 wins in the last 7 head-to-head encounters, their current form could lead to a different outcome. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius: model vs market
| Source | Banga | Draw | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Published | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Zalgiris Vilnius, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banga | 2.96 | 4.73 | +1.77 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.73 | +0.23 |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2.05 | 1.59 | -0.46 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Banga and FK Zalgiris Vilnius expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Banga / FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
- 0.88 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Banga / FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
- 1.02 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Banga goals. Columns: FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Banga | 22% | 4.52 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Banga or draw) | 47% | 2.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius win by 2+ | 21% | 4.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Banga and FK Zalgiris Vilnius recent form
Banga
1W 1D 4L
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Banga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Banga at home only, FK Zalgiris Vilnius away only.
Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Banga 3 · draws 2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2-3 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2026-06-20 | Banga | 3-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2026-04-17 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-1 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2025-09-13 | Banga | 0-2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2025-07-04 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-0 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2025-05-03 | Banga | 2-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2025-03-15 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-1 | Banga | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Banga, previous: Suduva Marijampole – Banga, 2026-11-01
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius, previous: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Trakai prediction