TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris preview
In the upcoming match between TransINVEST Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris, the 1X2 probabilities show TransINVEST Vilnius at 43%, while Kauno Žalgiris is at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% chance according to our model. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 60%, indicating a potential for an exciting match.
TransINVEST Vilnius has a recent form of L-W-D-W-W-L, while Kauno Žalgiris shows L-W-D-L-W-L. The expected goals for TransINVEST Vilnius is 1.93, compared to 1.16 for Kauno Žalgiris. A draw is also a possibility with a 25% chance, which could impact the final outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris: model vs market
| Source | TransINVEST Vilnius | Draw | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Published | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices TransINVEST Vilnius below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris odds movement
Median bookmaker price on TransINVEST Vilnius, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 3.40 | 2.31 | -1.09 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.58 | +0.08 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 1.88 | 2.52 | +0.64 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
TransINVEST Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (TransINVEST Vilnius / Kauno Žalgiris)
- 1.21 / 1.08
- Defence rating (TransINVEST Vilnius / Kauno Žalgiris)
- 0.89 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: TransINVEST Vilnius goals. Columns: Kauno Žalgiris goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (TransINVEST Vilnius or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Kauno Žalgiris) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | TransINVEST Vilnius win by 2+ | 32% | 3.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
TransINVEST Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris recent form
TransINVEST Vilnius
3W 1D 2L
Kauno Žalgiris
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
TransINVEST Vilnius at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kauno Žalgiris away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.81
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: TransINVEST Vilnius at home only, Kauno Žalgiris away only.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: TransINVEST Vilnius 1 · draws 1 · Kauno Žalgiris 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1-1 | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2026-06-20 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 1-2 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2026-04-18 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1-2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2026-11-08
- Panevėžys v Šiauliai — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- TransINVEST Vilnius, previous: Panevėžys v TransINVEST Vilnius analysis
- Kauno Žalgiris, previous: FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction
- Kauno Žalgiris, next: Kauno Žalgiris – Riga, 2026-11-26