Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai preview
In the A Lyga fixture between Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai, the 1X2 probabilities show Suduva Marijampole at 57% and Džiugas Telšiai at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Suduva's expected goals are 1.99, while Džiugas has 1.09, suggesting a potential advantage for Suduva.
However, Suduva's recent form includes 3 losses in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Džiugas Telšiai has had a mixed run with 2 wins in their last 6, indicating they could be competitive. Both teams to score stands at 58%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 59%, adding further uncertainty to the outcome.
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai: model vs market
| Source | Suduva Marijampole | Draw | Džiugas Telšiai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 13% |
| Published | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.09.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Suduva Marijampole, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 1.45 | 1.36 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.45 | +0.30 |
| Džiugas Telšiai | 5.35 | 6.72 | +1.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Suduva Marijampole / Džiugas Telšiai)
- 1.00 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Suduva Marijampole / Džiugas Telšiai)
- 1.01 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Suduva Marijampole goals. Columns: Džiugas Telšiai goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suduva Marijampole | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Džiugas Telšiai | 15% | 6.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Suduva Marijampole or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Džiugas Telšiai) | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Suduva Marijampole win by 2+ | 35% | 2.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai recent form
Suduva Marijampole
1W 2D 3L
Džiugas Telšiai
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Suduva Marijampole at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-6-1
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Džiugas Telšiai away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Suduva Marijampole at home only, Džiugas Telšiai away only.
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Suduva Marijampole 4 · draws 2 · Džiugas Telšiai 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Džiugas Telšiai | 0-2 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2026-06-21 | Džiugas Telšiai | 1-2 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2026-04-19 | Suduva Marijampole | 3-2 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
| 2025-10-18 | Džiugas Telšiai | 0-0 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2025-07-27 | Suduva Marijampole | 2-3 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
| 2025-05-25 | Džiugas Telšiai | 1-1 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2025-03-28 | Suduva Marijampole | 1-0 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2026-11-08
- Panevėžys v Šiauliai — match page 2026-11-08
- TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Suduva Marijampole, previous: Suduva Marijampole – Banga, 2026-11-01
- Džiugas Telšiai, previous: Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai: odds and pick